really . messed up probabilities

why the hell do I receive more xenomit than gate parts even thouh the chance of receiving xenomit is 1% lower .I did some tests and the probabilities are messed up .even more than 2 months ago .what the hell is going on .and can a mod check this . it seems like the probabilities dropped and are not really accurate

 

I know.. But when you almost complete a gate the chance of getting a gate part is lower. So it's logic if you receive more xenomit then gate parts when gate is almost full.

If gate is not full yet then it's just bad luck..

 

i dont know how the chance nowaday. But the chance was calculate like this : the chance to get gate part is 13%, it not mean the chance to get the part which you need is 13%. Ex: the gate require 100 part,when u use gg spin, the first part always have chance is 13%, then to 100th part, the chance to get it very low, it not 13% because 13% is the chance to get random gate part,not exactly 100th part which you need.So when u have a X2 that mean u've just pick a gate part that u already have.

 

dude I had alfa at 10 parts beta at 15 and gamma at 45 lol never mind when they are close to completion

 

What we really need to do is wait for the test server to come out, then we can burn 1mil uri and do the test ourselves and see if there is large variations between accounts.

No doubt if a mod did test it and came back saying it was 13% then people wouldn't believe it anyway.

 

true..and I know how they calculate it ..but it seems like it dropped a lot

 

Galaxy Gate Kappa completed.
You received 30000 UCB-100 laser ammo.
You received 10 log-disks.
You received 5 green booty key(s).
You received 9,900,000 EP.
You received 15,000 Uridium.
You received 325000 honor points.

345.000 uridium for that

number 20 in row with no Herc

Probabilities ...yeah right.

 

In gambling the house always wins.

Yes ive done many many tests and can say the probabilities have dramatically reduced but we not suppose to notice it just our imagination.

 

I've done a statistical analyses of the Galaxy Gate probabilities as a little side project, I burned through just under 1 million Uridium. I can safely say that with a two tailed test and using a 1% error margin, my results ended up being that the null hypothesis was incorrect and that indeed the percentage of getting a galaxy gate part is not 13%. I then did another test to find out if H1: p < 0 and it is indeed under 13%.

Then I got bored and decided to work out exactly what percentage (for the 1million uridium) it was. My final answer was to the 3 significant figures, 9.61%.

 

I do small amounts of EE but my latest result was the worst. 165 EE. I used it on kappa 50/120 parts. I got 9 gate parts, 4 were mulipliers and every single one of those, when used yielded xenomit. Total spins of xenomit(not including the x2 multipliers) was 21. I will save up a large amount of EE and do further tests, but in all my small tests, my xenomit has always been greater than my gate parts and it drives me nuts.

 

I'm going to collect lots of palladium for approximately 100,000 uridium worth of extra energy. Then I'll do some stats work for xenomite. I'll make a thread when I have the results but it might take a while to get that much palladium lol

 

This is a Rule I learn long ago..

In a Galaxy Far, Far, away..

when you spin your GGs.. If you dont get a Gate part every 15 spins.. then Refresh and try again.. if it still dont work.. Try your Spins at another Time of Day..

 

Are you taking into considertion multipliers?

 

do u really think that I don't take that into consideration .I've been playing this game since the beginning so I know how they were . now they r way lower .. and I said I'm getting more xenomit than gate parts ( which include multipliers) even though the change to get them is lower..

 

You have been even more unlucky than I have. I have over 50k spin which gave an average of around 11.5% new or duplicate part yield.

Just a thought, did you calculate the duplicate parts in the 13% or just how many part were added to the gates?
As the 13% is the yield for receiving a gate part, new or duplicate ( a multiplier ) not just new parts (parts added to a gate).

There does seem to be significant evidence, that the yield from gates, does not fit with in a normal distribution for a computer generated 13% probability.

 

75k uri with 30% off which is 1071 extra gg spins for 1 alfa part and still din't get the part screw u

 

300 spins for the last gate part and still didnt get it should i give up or die trying
30k uri for nothing.

 

I also perceived this to actual make a difference, but when I performed a controlled experiment to see if refreshing made any difference ( and I cleared cache and flash cache ) between re-logging. The results suggested there was no statistical benefit from actions like re-logging.
A few have said you get more when you start spinning, some have said palli spins or bonus box spins give worse results. I have looked at all of these and part from ( the first few gates (see below) there seem to be no significant difference. The only Thing I haven't check is real money spending an if it makes a difference. But from historic post from top players posting there gate costs it would seem that they see the same spread as free players.

The only interesting factor where I saw a statistical difference, was for the first 2-3 gates for a gate that I had never done before, but it is difficult without spinning gates on a new account to see if this is significant. I was only able to see this on the Lambda, Kappa and Epsilon, as the others I had already done far more than 3 gates.

When you do this. If you record for every 100 spins how many new gate parts you get, how many duplicate parts you get and the result of using multiplier ( when you use a multiplier in each 100 spins how often you get gate parts.)

It would be very useful to have data from another players account so we have both repeatability and reproducibility for gate spin results.

 

I have not done anything on statistics, but i noticed that each gate has a particular
rhythm.Once you find it they become pretty easy to build. Some gates you use multiplier
immediately.Some on 2nd or third.Theres a couple of gates i ll do 4 or 5 spins before i hit multiplier.Find the rhythm of the gate.

 

Try actually writing down your prediction, before you commit to using the perceived rhythm. You will find that on average it make no difference, but when you do not take note of the success and failure, you are more likely to remember the successes or failures depending on your preconception. Like Friday the 13th being unlucky. It isn't any more or less lucky than any other days, but many remember more often when it is unlucky.

Getting back on topic I have statistical evidence and there are others that have posted data that suggest we are seeing yields, that are less than would be expected from a 13% probability normal distribution.