Dark Orbit - finally a "real world" application for math

Discussion in 'General Archive' started by El_Burro, May 19, 2014.

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  1. SPSAT99

    SPSAT99 User

    So sigma is the value of the variation possibility in the data set?
  2. -Pacman2-

    -Pacman2- User

    Hi El_Burro, I have added some info to my previous post highlighted in lighter text, to make it clearer and reposted it here:-

    the current .php just give 13% yield for gate parts, so assuming no server side adjustment then the A,B,Y gate part distribution would be A 34/164 (21%) B 48/164 ( 29%) y 82/164 (50%)

    However I see closer to A 33% B 33% Y 33% these days. So I would guess there is some server side adjustment.

    As there are more gamma parts than beta / alpha and more beta than alpha, this would affect the distribution of completed gates.

    The A 45% B, 30% Y, 25% refers to the weighting of part yield, rather than complete gate distribution, so would not be representative of number of completed gate shown in the gate ranks.
    The original A,B,Y complete gate distribution was closer to 4 Alpha / 2 Beta / 1 Gamma.
    The last reference I have to the .php having a breakdown of A 45% B, 30% Y, 25% was Nov 2011. I do not know when that was changed.
    The change if we accept that the overall yield remained at 13% ( which I am not seeing statistically ) would be better for the players, as we would receive more Beta and Gamma gates so get better rewards.
    Unless you are a WW chasing Kronos gates. :rolleyes:

    The reason for looking at 3 sigma result especially the -3 sigma, was to give a value that a player could compare their results with, if a player returned result frequently below -3 sigma it would be an indication that there was an issue.

    +/- 3 sigma for a normal set of data would return approximately 99.73% of the results.
  3. El_Burro

    El_Burro User

    I am well aware that the breakdown of gate parts does not equal the number of gates completed. I saw the 4/2/1 distribution in gates too. But that was definitely with a breakdown for gate parts of 45%/30%/25% or something similar. See the table in post 17 to get the idea.
    The distribution of completed gates here reads:

    33%/33%/33% -> 2.43/1.72/1
    45%/30%/25% -> 4.45/2.07/1
    40%/30%/30% -> 3.25/1.72/1

    The thing is, already without a fully-fledged statistical analysis I can tell that the breakdown for gate parts NOW can not even be close to 34/164 (21%) B 48/164 ( 29%) y 82/164 (50%). Such a breakdown might even make it possible to earn Uridium from playing gates. Lets be honest, BP wont let that happen.
    Whats even more surprising in the first place: this breakdown for the parts would result in a nearly even distribution of completed gates.
    So we need at least some statistical data to tell if the breakdown is closer to 33/33/33 now.

    Concerning the standard deviation sigma: To compare your own results and see if there could be something wrong one can still look at the charts of the probability density function (pdf). If its value is indistinguishable from zero at the number of turns you just had this indicates that there could be something wrong.
    To make comparison easier I added a table with the percentiles in post 5. These are more meaningful than the standard deviation alone, especially for this kind of skewed pdf.
    Edit: here is why the standard deviation here can not be interpreted in the same way as for a normal distribution. Lets have a look at the pdf for Beta gates, multiplier used at level 6:


    One can clearly see that subtracting three times the standard deviation from the mean points to unrealistic numbers of turns (even negative ones here).
    Adding it 3 times to the mean points to a value for which the percentile is much lower than in a normal distribution.
    Thats why I added the table with the percentiles instead of giving standard deviations.

    And remember guys: we need data to proceed.
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2014
    -=Chef-Tony=- likes this.
  4. this maybe hellps whit other gates, but A,B and C gate don't give many time x2 x3 in 2 spins. i spend lots of uri on those gates and it just don't work like you say.
  5. SPSAT99

    SPSAT99 User

    El burro is NOT talking about what you get from gates, but rather how many parts comes out of the spinner. x2 and x3 has nothing to do with this
  6. then what is this about?
    he have say 10 times that using after x2(multiplier) very next spin you have biger chance to get gate parts whit x3(multi) or regular part.
    implying that it give two multiplier in a row often...
  7. SPSAT99

    SPSAT99 User

    I thought you were talking about the ammo, not the multipliers.
  8. yea i figure that :D
    thats why i add (multi) this time haha
  9. SPSAT99

    SPSAT99 User

    X2 and x3 both multipliers and ammo over here :p
  10. yea but since this is about multipliars and parts you culd of figure that i am talking about them haha
  11. El_Burro

    El_Burro User

  12. SPSAT99

    SPSAT99 User

    Sure. Was just clearing out a mis-communication. Sorry about that :D
  13. -Pacman2-

    -Pacman2- User

    Hi El_Burro, respect ;) I will carefully read your post,

    but for now I would like to whole heatedly agree, the break down as would be returned without server side manipulation, would have the potential to return a profit.

    From my basic cals a few years ago ( having a reasonably high ability to understand statistics) with a breakdown of A,B,Y returning complete gates of 4,2,1 respectively ( or more precisely 45%/30%25% gate part distribution) could return a profit for a prem rebate player. ( understanding the complexity of the possible combination of A,B,Y parts at any point in time.)

    So something must be being manipulated sever side or A,B,Y gate bashers could now do A,B,Y gates these days and much more easily return a profit from them.

    My money is on materialiser yield discrepancy, especially as I am seeing closer to 9% materialiser part yield. Accepting that it take around 8 (7.69) time more data to establish a trend.

    I guess the subtle difference is, you are looking at gate cost. Were as, I generally look at new / duplicate part per 100 spins ( % yield per spin) and yield for multiplier use.

    PS just ask a mod to remove or move any unrelated post or part post content, (including mine) so that this thread can be a clean discussion on gate relate maths.
    Last edited: May 26, 2014
  14. Small Fact :

    You also get more ammo using all X2 multi's than with X6's....

    For a 6X muli , you need 5 duplicate parts, witch gives X6 the ammo...(1 * 6X = 6 )

    But take those same 5 duplicates and use the X2 multi's separately, they would yield a total of 10X whatever ammo is spun...( 5 * 2X = 10 )

    I had to add a simple fun fact as the numbers are getting pretty dense around here. Thought I'd give a nice simple reason to use X2 Muli's every time that some people might overlook , cheers ;)
  15. El_Burro

    El_Burro User

    Good point Ρļ€*İŋ*Ŧħ€*§ķ¥.
    This is one of the few other reasons I omitted in 1.1 to keep the post shorter.

    -Pacman2- I would not say that there is some "manipulation" going on. To me that sounds quite negative. Lets just say that the breakdown for the three gates has to be implemented somehow in the algorithm. And BP does not tell us which breakdown they are trying to achieve and of course not how they try to do it.

    May I ask how large your sample size is when you only get 9% parts and multipliers?
    Someone in the german part of the forum kindly uploaded his statistics from 2000 consecutive turns he made a few days ago. He got even a bit more than 13% parts and multipliers.
    I will analyze the data and see if it is enough to decide on the breakdown of parts.

    Edit: Ok obviously 2000 turns are not enough for a final decision, but from this data set it is probable that the breakdown is in fact 33%/33%/33%.
    Last edited: May 26, 2014
  16. Omega

    Omega User

    3100 was mine and the percentages I got varried a bit since I do this often . most of the time I get around a 7.698 % so 7.7 % but sometimes I get 10.355% ,.but never have I got 13%
  17. lost1*

    lost1* User

    Really yall are wasting your time trying to figure out the % of anything for Dark Orbit the % is what Dark Orbit wants you to have today tomorrow it will be different and the next day something else also. It has been asked for as long as I have been playing and the answer is always the same its a CHANCE.
  18. El_Burro

    El_Burro User

    Dont get this the wrong way, but since it is a common misconception I have to ask: You did count multipliers as gate parts? This may be a coincidence, but the yield for gate parts alone not including multipliers is in fact in the order of 7%.
    I have been playing this game for quite a few years now always keeping an eye on things like that. I never had any reason to doubt that the the yield for gate parts (and multipliers) was 13%. Every single statistic I made came to this conclusion.

    That is just the answer you get from people without a basic knowledge of statistics;)
    Last edited: May 27, 2014
  19. Omega

    Omega User

    lol of course I counted them with the multipliers I was getting that result and also most of the time it was only(ONLY) multipliers

    just a small sample . but as you can see this happens mostly at the end , tried it with 5 , 10 100 and 1 gg at a time, actually this was the only time when it actually got close to 13 % .12.5 but that was a rarity lol
  20. lost1*

    lost1* User

    So tell us then what is dark orbit baseing its % on 13% of 100 people spinning gates or 13% of 1000 people spinning gates or is it 13% of 100 spins based off number of players spinning the gate at the same time. The fact is no one really knows except for support it is no different then the chance to gain an lf4 or ship design how many players here no longer get ship designs from booty boxes since they already have them all / I mean think about it if it was chance you would still get a design and then complain why do I need that since I already have one in my hanger. You get what they want you to get.