Dark Orbit - finally a "real world" application for math

I have done extensive in game controlled experiments to look at Laser damage and Have the data somewhere if needed.

I have been in contact with support about the subject and numerous times in the old forum mods have posting the same information.

Laser damage IS maximum to 75% of maximum regardless of which laser types are used. The range is for the total damage not individual lasers.

 

Well last time I did these experiments the results were different, depending on the type of laser used. It has bin a while since then though.
When did you do your experiments?


Edit: Quickly checked laser damage again, and apparently, you are right.
They changed the range of the LF3 Lasers from 125-150 to 112.5-150.
This increases the advantage of the LF4 lasers.

Funny that things like

make it to the patchlog, but changes to the laser damage do not.

 

Based on when to use the multiplier, is it best to use the single spin option rather then the 100 spins?

 

Yes.

 

Figures. Just wish I'd actually used my brain before spinning 250k uri with 100 spins for just 1 piece of gamma.

 

100 spins would create many excess parts, so it would not be a good way to do spins when you're up to your last few parts.

 

Can you do the best item upgrading strategy next?

 

I didnt include the item upgrading thing because there are lots of other threads with the correct solution for this.
But for the sake of completenes, I might add this topic here. Thanks for the reminder.

 

3. Item Upgrading
3.1 Introduction and Summary

Upgrading Items with a success rate lower than 100% usually is the cheaper way. But which success rate actually is the cheapest? We can answer this by looking at the number of tries it takes on average untill the item upgrade was successful.
For example, using a success rate of 25% the average number of tries is 1/0.25=4.
The average cost is this number multiplied with the cost per try.
Lets have a closer look at this for the Upgrade of a Uridium Item from Level 1 to Level 2:



On the x-axis we have the success rate for the item upgrade. On the left y-axis we have the cost in Uridium and on the right y-axis we have the average number of tries for a successful upgrade.
See how there is a minimum for the average cost at a success rate of 25%. The average cost here is 2120 Uridium compared to 3905 Uridium for an Upgrade with 100% success rate. The position of the minimum will be different for other upgrade levels.

To be continued...

 

3. Item Upgrading
3.2 Uridium Items

The tables here apply to all normal Uridium items like Lasers, Shields, Drones and Rocketlaunchers.

The first table holds the cost per try, the second table holds the average cost for success with the path for the cheapest upgrade.
The total cost for upgrading an item to level 16 is 104'250 Uridium using only 100% upgrades compared to 94'884 Uridium using the cheapest way. The difference is 9'366 Uridium.

 

3. Item Upgrading
3.3 Credit Items

The tables here apply to all Credit items like Lasers, Shields, Drones and Rocketlaunchers.

The first table holds the cost per try, the second table holds the average cost for success with the path for the cheapest upgrade.
The total cost for upgrading an item to level 16 is 581'625'000 Credits using only 100% upgrades compared to 85'525'000 Credits using the cheapest way. The difference is 496'100'000 Credits.

 

3. Item Upgrading
3.4 CBS base modules

The tables here apply to the CBS base modules, namely the hull and the deflector module

The first table holds the cost per try, the second table holds the average cost for success with the path for the cheapest upgrade.
The total cost for upgrading an item to level 16 is 402 750 Uridium using only 100% upgrades compared to 274 500 Uridium using the cheapest way. The difference is 128'250 Uridium.

 

3. Item Upgrading
3.5 CBS auxiliary modules

The tables here apply to the all other CBS modules.

The first table holds the cost per try, the second table holds the average cost for success with the path for the cheapest upgrade.
The total cost for upgrading an item to level 16 is 268 500 Uridium using only 100% upgrades compared to 183 000 Uridium using the cheapest way. The difference is 88 500 Uridium.

 

I have seen most of these types of charts before except for the first one , which charted success rate VS cost and number of tries, between level one and level two.

It was nice to see the graph where all the data on the chart came from for each level upgrade.

I can only hope the DO code works in the manner the test simulations do ...IE at 10% chance we would expect about ten tries before success.

Keep up the great work El Burro

Ρļ€*İŋ*Ŧħ€*§ķ¥ <----- Math tutor

 

4. Item Chances
4.1 Introduction

Have you ever wondered how many more Zeta gates you need to finish until you finally get those 4 missing Havoc designs?
The answer for the average number is quite simple: divide 4 by the 33% chance to get a Havoc design and you get 12. But unfortunately, most players will need a different number. The range can be estimated with the help of the binomial distribution. I wont go into details here because I think it will cause more confusion than actually help understanding what I do. If you really want to know what is behind the curtain, feel free to ask.

So let me explain the tables with the results. Here is an example for the Havoc designs you can get as a reward from Zeta gates.
In the upper right corner we have the succes rate / drop chance I assumed for the analysis. in the first column we have the number of Items we still need. In our example this number is 4. the second column holds the mean values, 12 in our example. So far, so good.
Since most people dont know what a percentile is, let me explain briefly.
Different players trying to get 4 Havoc designs from Zeta gates will need a different amount of gates until they have all 4 designs. A percentile of 5 means that 5% of the people trying to get the Havoc designs will need less than the number asociated to this percentile. In our example, this number is 6. So 5 percent of the players trying to get their missing 4 Havoc designs will need 6 Zeta gates or less.
On the other hand, a percentile of 95 indicates that 95% of the players will need more than this number of Zeta gates, which is 21 in our example.
Or to put it in other words: 90% of the attempts to get 4 Havoc designs from Zeta gates will need between 6 and 21 Gates.

 

4. Item Chances
4.2 LF4, Havoc, Hercules and Saturn

 

Just a comment on this. I know there were similar tables based on monte carlo simulations. But this is unnecessary here because the analytical solution is quite obvious and more precise.

 

ok if that's all real ,how do u explain spinning 80k uri with rebate and premium for the last 6 parts of gamma and not getting them

 

Nothing to explain here. What you describe nothing special and should be expected when spinning gates.
I promised not to do "individual" calculations for every possible starting point, but here is an exception for one of my 3 followers



The cumulative distribution function (cdf) for the amount of turns it takes to get the last six gamma parts; optimal strategy. Please igniore the crappyness of the diagram, this is really quick&dirty.

So your 80k Uridium correspond to 1143 turns. The value of the cdf is 0.888 here.
In other words, there is a chance of 11.2% that you need more than 80k Uridium with premium and rebate to get the last 6 gamma parts even with the optimal strategy.

 

I had to spend 133k to get my last 6 parts so yeah not really fair ..