[SC] Booty Keys

Hello,

I would like to know an estimation "just a mere guess" about the number of booty keys to collect 31 LF-4s knowing that they will be used on the LF-4 day

Thanks

 

since u usually receive LF3's on LF4 day, it will take a LONG TIME to get the 31......................

 

Depends on your LUCK. YES the chance is 3X greater but when talking 0,01% chance * 3 is only .0003 chance of getting the things.

Better chance is in building the gates that give a chance for a LF-4 instead.

 

I have asked the question "how often does a booty box give and LF4" directly to support. I was told that each key has it's own chance of giving an LF4 or an LF3 or Ammo, that it really is the luck of the draw. My argument is someone wrote the program for the chance. The argument could also be made that if DO really doesn't know what your chance of getting an LF4 is then how can they claim that you have three times the chance of getting an LF4. It's one of those questions I don't think we will ever get an answer on.

I have went in with 100 keys and got 3 LF4s. Other times I have went in with 100 keys and gotten none. So your guess is as good as mine.

 

When they spawn the Chests there is 1/1000 chests regular and 3/1000 on special days. This has nothing to do with who is collecting the chests or how many you open. It is all a mater of luck if you find the right chest. I know people who bought 1000 keys and got J S nothing for their effort. Then there are those who get 6 out of 50 keys used.

 

Where do you get the information about the chance of 0,01%? I think it's 0,4%, isn't it?

 

Do you mean that when the server spawns them, there will be only 3 chests having LF-4s out of 1000 chests lying around?

Who else supports this claim?

 

Based on my own experience across 3 accounts (184 LF-4), where the vast majority of my LF-4 have come from booty boxes, the base rate was around 0.5% for me.
Almost 4 Years ago I used 2,400 keys in 2 days on gb2 and got 23 or 24 LF-4, I can't remember exactly which it was but across all my accounts 1 in 100 seemed to be the drop rate - these were done on the old LF-4 day which was only x2 chance.

So going off my own experience on the old LF-4 days I would say it will take you on average around 67 boxes per LF-4 on helix LF4 days, so in the region of just under 2,100 for all 31.

If you buy booty keys with rebate, premium and the 30% extra discount that is sometimes active then it will cost you on average 60,300 U. per LF-4.

 

Thank you for your statistics, will help me a lot

 

I would say 2200 - 3000 keys during helix days.

 

Sorry, maybe I didn't read an old post where you explain this, but under which conditions did you collect (how many different maps, are there other players, who collect chests...)?

@¤THE¤PUNISHER¤[VIP]: Don't calculate how much Uri you need for 31 LF4, if you aren't patiently...This number can frustrate you.

 

I totally understand the number, a booty key price can be reduced to 0.6K U. using all advantages & sales
So regarding the 2.4K Booty keys, we're talkin about 1.5 Mill U. Approx. which can be handled easily I guess

 

Most of them were collected in battlemaps since they're the smallest maps in the game so theoretically it will be easier to find boxes. Sometimes there would be only me in the maps, especially on the East3 account since I would be collecting in the morning my time (BST) when the majority of people were not logged in. However on the GE1 account there would be as many as 20 other people trying to collect boxes in the map so it was much more frustrating.

With that said, I did not see any noticeable difference between collecting the drop rates of collecting in bmps vs non-bmps - the only difference is how easy the boxes were to find.

This was done over the course of 3 years, the only time I noticed a really big change in drop rate was on the very first ever double LF-4 day where I got 17 LF4 from 900 keys and a friend got something like 12 from 700, both accounts were on GE1.




Funny enough a couple months ago I began recording down my progress with booty boxes on helix day on my GB2 account and have just never got round to finishing it. So far I have used 354 with 849 still left to use and the current results are:

• 5 LF-4
• 23 LF-3
• 19 B02
• 8 Speed gens
• 2 Cloak CPU
• 8 CBS modules
• 4 10-hour boosters

The problem is even 350 keys is a very small sample size, would really need to do well over 1,000 to have a solid set of results.

 

i have gotten 3 lf4s in a row have also went 600+ key dry spell if the contents of the box is determined at the time of spawn(i beleave this is true) and not at the time of collecting then any % anyone puts on getting an lf4 is going to be wrong as luck of the pick is going to make the % change so much that it would be impossible.

 

Even 1000 keys is too small sample. I would say at least 10k keys should be used to make any conclusions. Would be nice if community could gather data from 100k keys then we would have pretty accurate idea of the chances for different rewards.

 

Yep, this is very true, big problem is we have no real way to verify and prove what any of us say we got.





The other side of it is that statistics and chances are pretty weird when people actually look into it. People have to look at the chance of them not receiving a LF-4 because of something called the 'Bernoulli process'.

It's hard to fully explain in a simple way but the best way of looking at statistics like this is if there is a 0.5% (1/200) chance of a LF-4 than therefore there is a 99.5% chance not to get the LF-4 with every attempt.

The chance of not getting a LF-4 over 200 booty boxes would be 0.995²ºº = 0.36695782171 or if we round it up then 0.367 which is a 36.7% chance not to receive an LF-4 out of 200 booty boxes if the drop rate is set at 0.5%.

So that's why the percentage chance of something like this is never exactly what it seems, that goes with anything, although I would say most people are already aware of this process.

 

Chances can not be given a PERCENTAGE as there is no percentage in the equation. IF you were to be informed every 100 keys you were GUARANTEED to get a LF-4 (or other ELITE item) then you could generate a percentage based answer, but when people can get 5 LF-4 in 60 keys and others get ZERO in 200 keys there is no percentage to be applied. There are too many factors to put into play as to how many keys are going to be needed and is why D O has never seen fit to actually publish any numbers for their "SPECIAL" days because there are none to be posted. The generator they have that spawns the Chests places "X" amount per 1000 Chests spawned and if you are lucky enough to find those "X"'s then you are fortunate enough to have received it. The more people collecting the Chests the more chance you have of collecting a "X" but then AGAIN it is a CHANCE.

 

Use it or lose it - LF-4 day is a toss up - I'd rather just use the key when I get them and do it the upper maps to use aka 4-x and above - GL

 

True. However, data from 10k keys could be collected fairly fast from trusted persons if one really wanted to organize such.

 

Trusted person or not, any number of keys used is not going to give the same results as this is not a PERCENTAGE item. You have no GUARANTEE of collecting the items you are trying to get. Pick Chests on ZEUS Days and unless you have a full Apis drone ready to be built you will get more Apis Blueprints than the ZEUS that you are supposed to get. On LF-4 days, when you have them found by few (very often) and most don't get a single one picking 3-4 times more Chests says you can not use Solo figures.

The only way to be able to get a TRUE data information would be to have D O post exactly what is generated/placed in maps every time they re-spawn in the maps, and if the spawn is in every map (individually) or the entire space system (32 maps).

But again the Blueprints must be a dual Chest which looks at what you have before giving it to you (thus the need for the 5 second collection time). It also has to take into account if you have both of these FULL, what is given in place of them?

The whole issue I am trying to point out is it all depends on what you already have as far as what you are going to be able to collect. On LF-4 day if you do not have the Apis Drone ready to be built you will have less chance of finding an LF-4 than someone who has it FULL. On ZEUS day, again, it depends on if you have the Apis ready, for you to collect the Zeus prints. And a person who is trying to collect LF-4's with both of these FULL would have a better chance of getting the LF-4 because these other 2 Chest types have to be removed from the mix for their collection.